classDiagram
    direction TB
    class AggregationJob {
        -ObservationQuery query
        +runAll() void
        -countSamples() void
        -computeSeatDrop() void
        -computeCellRisk() void
    }
    class ObservationQuery {
        <<repository>>
        +upsertSampleCount() int
        +upsertSeatDrop() int
        +upsertCellRisk() int
    }
    class CellRisk {
        -int stopOrder
        -TimeBand timeBand
        -double risk
        -int sampleSize
        +risk() double
        +hasEnoughSamples() boolean
    }
    class CellRiskRepository {
        <<repository>>
        +findByRoute(String routeId, TimeBand band) List~CellRisk~
    }
    class ForecastJob {
        -RouteForecaster forecaster
        -RouteForecastRepository forecasts
        -List~String~ routeIds
        -Clock clock
        +publishAll() void
    }
    class RouteForecaster {
        -ChanceModel model
        -CellRiskRepository risks
        +forecast(String routeId, Instant judgedAt) RouteForecast
    }
    class ChanceModel {
        <<interface>>
        +version() String
        +estimate(int stopOrder, TimeBand band, CellRisk risk) ChanceState
    }
    class BaselineChanceModel {
        +version() String
        +estimate(int stopOrder, TimeBand band, CellRisk risk) ChanceState
    }
    class ChanceState {
        <<sealed interface>>
        +writeTo(RouteForecast f, int stopOrder) void
    }
    class Estimated {
        -Probability probability
        +writeTo(RouteForecast f, int stopOrder) void
    }
    class NotEstimated {
        -Reason reason
        +writeTo(RouteForecast f, int stopOrder) void
    }
    class Probability {
        -double value
        +of(double v) Probability
        +percent() int
    }
    class Reason {
        <<enumeration>>
        UNAVAILABLE
    }
    class TimeBand {
        <<enumeration>>
        MORNING_RUSH
        OTHER
        +of(LocalTime local) TimeBand
    }
    class RouteForecast {
        -Long id
        -String routeId
        -Instant judgedAt
        -String modelVersion
        -List~BoardingChance~ stops
        +startedAt(String routeId, Instant at, String version) RouteForecast
        +addEstimated(int stopOrder, int percent) void
        +addUnavailable(int stopOrder, Reason reason) void
    }
    class BoardingChance {
        -Long id
        -int stopOrder
        -Integer percent
        -Reason reason
    }
    class RouteForecastRepository {
        <<repository>>
        +save(RouteForecast f) RouteForecast
    }
    AggregationJob --> ObservationQuery
    ObservationQuery ..> CellRisk
    ForecastJob --> RouteForecaster
    ForecastJob --> RouteForecastRepository
    RouteForecaster --> ChanceModel
    RouteForecaster --> CellRiskRepository
    RouteForecaster ..> RouteForecast
    CellRiskRepository ..> CellRisk
    ChanceModel <|.. BaselineChanceModel
    ChanceModel ..> ChanceState
    ChanceState <|.. Estimated
    ChanceState <|.. NotEstimated
    Estimated --> Probability
    NotEstimated --> Reason
    ChanceState ..> RouteForecast
    RouteForecast o-- BoardingChance